By Nuno Mendes of Stratio Automotive
Bus passenger numbers have been in decline for the last decade, with commuting modes changing drastically over this period. Despite environmental concerns, the car has continued to dominate, with the bus hosting only 6% of commuter shares.
Cars represent 16% of the EU’s overall greenhouse gas emissions, or 72% of EU road transport emissions, making fundamental behaviour change more pressing than ever when it comes to mobility.
While the path to reducing greenhouse emissions is seemingly obvious, why has public transport failed to deal with this decline in order to provide a viable alternative to the car and bring down emissions? Answering this question starts with understanding why the car has commanded so much popularity over the years.
The vicious cycle of a declining public transport sector
While public transport providers suffered severe cutbacks during COVID-19, their decline owes more to the effect of habitual car use.
With more people shifting away from buses, bus agency revenues have plummeted, forcing them to raise fares to remain solvent. Now, buses travel on the same roads as cars, but take longer, are less reliable and come at a premium cost. Although schemes such as dedicated right of way bus lanes have attempted to ease the issue of congestion, unreliability and speed remain a big factor, making consumers ditch the bus in favour of their own vehicle. Historic routes have consequently been cancelled, leading to a further decline in passenger numbers.
Although car ownership is up across the country, a quarter of English and Welsh houses have no access to a car and two thirds of job-seekers now lack access to transport. A recent report by sustrans found that 1.5 million people are at serious risk of being cut off from work and healthcare because of the rising costs of owning and running a car, and a lack of alternative affordable transport methods, further instantiating the connection between travel insecurity and job insecurity. A decade of declining trust, increasing costs and discontent around operational efficiency and reliability has shaped the public transport experience for many, compounded by the impact of COVID-19 and fears around being in close proximity to others.
So there are clearly many factors contributing to the decline of the bus as a mode of transport. But at the crux of car dependence is the central problem of unreliable public transport. Overcoming the mentality of “if the bus doesn’t get me there on time, next time I’ll use my car” is an essential part of the puzzle.
While urban planners and transportation professionals are constantly reimagining ways to improve systems to combat pollution, so much of it has become white noise to consumers. One thing can go wrong and millions of pounds are wasted, giving the public more reason to mistrust public systems and fail to take future plans seriously.
Democratising the public transport sector
Many cities have successfully managed to reduce CO2 emissions by as much as 50 percent by reducing or limiting the flow of private cars. However, urban planning policies such as car-free developments won’t be enough to tackle the issues faced within a climate-sustainable timeframe. We need to encourage socially-driven innovation which transforms the public transport services on offer – making it more reliable and more affordable – in order to put the public back in public transport.
Reliability, in particular, is crucial to reinstate passengers’ trust in public transport and incentivise bus riding over private car use. We must change people’s perception that taking the bus equates to a leap of faith and comes with the acknowledgment that one may arrive at their destination late. To do that, we need to guarantee a service that runs on time, doesn’t break down, and gives passengers’ the peace of mind of knowing they will be getting where they need to be, when they need to be there.
Technology may have the answer to this problem. Sophisticated data-powered tools like predictive fleet maintenance can leverage artificial intelligence (AI) to give bus providers real-time, actionable insights into the internal faults of buses; pre-empting and preventing the breakdown of the vehicle. Improving fleet availability is key to providing a more efficient bus service, which tackles the challenge of reducing emissions head on, as well as creating a more reliable and therefore more attractive service for commuters.
Vehicle data can then be further harnessed to enable dedicated fuel consumption strategies which serve to lower emissions across ICE public transport fleets; helping drivers to improve their driving efficiency so that they spend as little time and fuel as possible on each journey.
This combination of AI and data-led predictive maintenance solutions will enable bus providers to save on time and money, helping to increase usage and accelerating cities’ carbon neutral efforts. The creation of this level of visibility over a fleet is also a great stepping stone to increasing the number of bus routes to make buses more accessible.
Indeed, the physical infrastructure of public transport can also be a huge barrier to people with disabilities in particular. By making buses more reliable, infrastructure changes will follow to broaden and prioritise shared mobility, planting the seeds to move away from private transport altogether. The potential impact of this is clear when considering that one bus is able to replace a minimum of 30 cars. Those with limited access to resources can only stand to benefit from increased fleet availability, enhancing their access to job opportunities, healthcare and much more.
Leveraging data and AI in predictive fleet maintenance solutions, fleet managers can provide a maximised service that removes vehicle breakdowns from the equation, creating a zero-downtime, reliable future for fleets and attracting the public back to public transport. Bus companies can empower their passengers by optimising the number of people served, enabling them to access greater opportunities and resources, and therefore address key socio-economic issues.
